What performed better? My Pension fund vs S&P500?

📊A data-driven answer starting from 2019

Until recently, a Dutch pension was largely taken care of for you: your employer set up a plan with a pension fund, and you saw on your annual statement how much you (maybe) would receive later.

Simple? Yes. Clear? Not always. Tailored to your personal situation? Less and less.

That’s why a big change is coming: the new pension system. One of the biggest shifts is that you, as a participant, will soon be able to make your own choices within your pension plan.

At a previous employer, I built up a pension with Cappital. From the beginning, Cappital gave monthly insight into how much was in the pot, how much was deposited, and what monthly return was achieved. Recently (or maybe I just found out), you can now choose your own investment funds (although the number of options is very limited).

Since 2017, I haven’t contributed any more money because I now work elsewhere—and I think this pension fund is better than the one from my new employer. But has Cappital performed better or worse than the market?

Here’s a comparison between my Pension fund vs S&P500.

With my pension data from January 2019 to early July 2025.

Why 2019? Very simply, the statements don’t go back further because Cappital transitioned into Aegon and ASR.

📊 The Comparison: Pension Fund vs. S&P500

We looked at how a pension pot and the S&P 500 index developed from 2019. The starting value was the same: €17,360 (that was the pot on 1-1-2019). What did we find?

Year	Pension Fund	S&P 500-index	Difference
Jan 2019	100%	100%	0%
July 2025	174,81%	198,38%	23%

➡️ The S&P 500 grew by 98% over this period, while my pension pot grew by 75%. That’s a significant difference of 23% in the final outcome.

Update: In an earlier version, I didn’t account for exchange rates. Especially this year, there’s a big difference because the dollar has dropped significantly against the euro (see 3rd image). Due to our strange orange "friend" who is currently in power.

In the end, it makes very little difference in the final return, since most pension funds are about 60% exposed to U.S. stock markets.

What does this really mean?

In a 6-year period, the difference in returns is 20%. I still have 30 years until my retirement date, so if my pension fund continues to underperform to the same extent, the gap will grow much larger.

Assuming a return that's only half of what we’ve seen over the past 6 years (which were exceptionally strong, and probably won’t continue for another 30 years), the difference in my pension pot could be around €125,000.This amount could translate into about €450–€500 gross monthly pension.

Why did the S&P 500 perform better?

1. More risk = more return (long term) Pension funds invest broadly and defensively — with lots of bonds, real estate, and risk protection.

2. S&P 500 = shares in mega-companies

   Think Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and recently Nvidia. These companies have consistently performed well, especially in recent years.Cappital/ASR, on the other hand, has invested heavily in sustainable funds. These funds have underperformed significantly compared to U.S. companies that don’t care much about the environment but are focused on maximizing shareholder value.

3. Pension investing = stability, not maximum growth

   The goal of pension funds is to pay out with certainty, not to achieve the highest return.

4. Pension funds or Actively managed mutual funds often perform less good than index funds or ETF's.

   
   

But… is it a problem that my pension performs worse?

Not necessarily, because past results don’t guarantee future outcomes. But with the changing pension system, it’s now possible to make more personal choices. We’re still relatively young, actively managing our financial future, and will hopefully not be fully dependent on our pension pot.

That allows us to make our own decisions. And because our pension pots are spread out (due to changing employers), we can afford to “play” a bit with riskier investments in the coming years.

But: if everyone will soon have to make their own choices, I wonder whether most people will be able to do so. The available funds are described in a very cryptic way and are not comparable at all to the ETFs you can buy as a retail investor (at least at Cappital). I think for many people it will be too difficult to figure everything out themselves, and it’s wise to choose a default risk profile that becomes more defensive with age.

Even with my financial background, I personally find it difficult to fully understand everything…

Conclusion: My pension grows steadily, but the S&P 500 grows faster.

With the new Dutch pension system, you’ll soon be able to choose:

Do you want to stay safe – or take a bit more risk for potentially higher growth?

🧠 Tip: Check with your pension fund how your risk profile is currently set, and whether you can already adjust it.